Forex $22.7B, Rupee Steady at Rs. 278 — Pakistan Economy June 2026
Pakistan closes out FY 2025-26 with forex reserves at $22.7 billion, rupee stable at Rs. 278/USD, PSX near 180,000, and trade deficit narrowing 39% YoY — a dramatically improved macroeconomic picture vs two years ago.
Pakistan Closes FY26 on a Positive Macroeconomic Note
Key Takeaways
- Foreign exchange reserves at $22.742 billion (SBP: $17.221B + banks: $5.521B)
- USD/PKR rate stable at ~Rs. 277–278/USD — rupee strengthened 1.84% YoY
- PSX KSE-100 near 179,571 after pulling back from the 180,000 all-time high
- May 2026 trade deficit narrowed 39% YoY to $2.58 billion
- Petrol at Rs. 299.78/litre — first below Rs. 300 in years (effective June 20)
- FY 2026-27 begins July 1 with new tax slabs, property rates, and minimum wage in effect
End of FY26 Snapshot: Pakistan’s Economy in Numbers
As FY 2025-26 draws to a close, Pakistan’s macroeconomic position is dramatically improved compared to the crisis conditions of 2022–23, when the country was days away from sovereign default.
| Indicator | FY23 (Crisis) | FY26 (Now) |
|---|---|---|
| SBP Forex Reserves | ~$3.7 billion | $17.221 billion |
| Policy Rate | 22% | 11.5% |
| Inflation (YoY) | 38% (peak) | 11.7% (May 2026) |
| Petrol Price | Rs. 272/litre | Rs. 299.78/litre |
| KSE-100 | ~50,000 | ~179,500 |
| IMF Status | Under pressure | 3rd review complete |
Foreign Exchange Reserves: $22.7 Billion
SBP foreign exchange reserves stand at $17.221 billion as of the week ending June 12, 2026 — the highest level since before the 2022 IMF crisis. Total liquid reserves including commercial banks are $22.742 billion.
Key contributors to the reserve build-up:
- Record remittances: ~$38.1 billion cumulatively (Jul 2025–May 2026)
- IMF disbursements: $1.1 billion in May/June 2026
- Improved current account (surplus of $459M in May 2026)
- Reduced import pressure from lower oil prices
Rupee: Stable at Rs. 277–278/USD
The Pakistani rupee has held in a remarkably tight range throughout June 2026: Rs. 277.87 to Rs. 281.15 per USD, closing late June at around Rs. 277–278/USD.
Year-on-year, the rupee has actually strengthened 1.84% against the dollar — a remarkable turnaround given that the PKR was one of the world’s worst-performing currencies in 2023.
Key factors keeping the rupee stable:
- High remittance inflows (consistent supply of dollars)
- SBP’s reserve-building strategy
- IMF programme credibility reducing speculative pressure
- Improved current account
Use our Currency Converter for live USD/PKR rates.
PSX: Near 180,000 After Profit-Taking
The KSE-100 crossed 180,000 for the first time ever on June 16–17, 2026, reaching an intraday high of 180,392.97. Since then, profit-taking has brought the index back to around 179,500 — a healthy consolidation after the rapid Budget-week surge.
Weekly performance (June 23): Index shed ~800 points on profit-taking and fiscal year-end portfolio rebalancing. This is normal and expected after a 6,500+ point weekly rally. The medium-term trend remains strongly bullish, with year-on-year gains of +46.28%.
Trade Deficit Narrows 39%
Pakistan’s trade deficit for May 2026 narrowed sharply to Rs. 721.6 billion (~$2.58 billion) — a 39% improvement year-on-year.
| Month | Trade Deficit |
|---|---|
| May 2025 | Rs. 842.5 billion |
| May 2026 | Rs. 721.6 billion (-39%) |
- Exports (May 2026): Rs. 753.7 billion (+9.45% month-on-month)
- Imports (May 2026): Rs. 1.48 trillion (-21.55% month-on-month — driven by lower oil import costs)
Note: The 11-month cumulative deficit (July 2025–May 2026) widened 18.3% to Rs. 9,775 billion, as the May improvement followed elevated imports earlier in the year.
What Changes on July 1, 2026 (FY27 Start)
With the new financial year beginning July 1, 2026, the following changes take effect:
| Item | Change |
|---|---|
| Salaried income tax slabs | New rates (1% to 35%) — use Tax Calculator |
| Section 236K (property buyer WHT) | 1.5% flat |
| Section 236C (property seller WHT) | 2.75% flat |
| Section 7E (deemed rental income) | Abolished |
| Minimum wage | Rs. 40,700/month (+10%) |
| Government salaries | +7% |
| IT export tax rate | 0.25% (extended to 2030) |
| Super tax (income ≤Rs. 500M) | Abolished |
| EV imports (under Rs. 20M) | 0% customs duty |
| International card WHT | 0.5% (down from 5%) |
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Pakistan’s FY26 performance compare to IMF targets?
Pakistan has broadly met its IMF targets for FY26 — primary surplus maintained, reserves above targets, and structural benchmarks progressing. This is a marked improvement from FY22–23 when Pakistan repeatedly missed fiscal targets.
What is the outlook for inflation in FY27?
The June 20 petrol price cut of Rs. 74/litre should significantly reduce transportation CPI (running at 36.8% YoY). The SBP forecasts inflation to trend toward the 5–7% medium-term target — possibly by mid-FY27 if oil prices remain benign.
Should I buy property before or after July 1?
The new lower WHT rates (1.5% buyer, 2.75% seller) take effect July 1, 2026. If you are buying, waiting until after July 1 saves you money on WHT. If you are selling, the same logic applies — lower seller WHT from July 1. Use our Property Stamp Duty Calculator to estimate costs.
Data sourced from SBP, PBS, PSX, and IMF releases as of June 2026. For educational purposes only, not financial advice.
HisaabKar Editorial
M.Phil Economics, B.Com · Pakistan Finance Specialist
Covering Pakistani economy, monetary policy, and financial markets for everyday readers.